Quote:
Originally Posted by David Anthony
It seems that the popularity of the Scottish Nationalist Party peaked shortly before the Scottish independence referendum. In the subsequent Scottish parliamentary elections they failed to win a majority. I believe the early general election will be bad news for the SNP because the Scottish Conservative Party and unionism are resurgent. Sorry, Nigel.
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Ah.... David, what you seem to see and believe are the stuff that Tory dreams are made on. The facts are actually these.
Just before the independence referendum in 2014, the SNP had six MPs out of 59. By May 2015 it had 56 out of 59. The only party ever to win a majority in the Holyrood elections was the SNP in 2011. In 2016 the SNP achieved the highest proportion of the popular vote that any party has ever done and an overwhelming majority of 59 of the 73 ''constituency members" - also the highest such percentage ever. The combined pro-independence parties, SNP and Greens, also secured a handsome majority in the Holyrood parliament and the SNP was returned to government for the third successive time - a feat unequalled by any other party.
As to Scottish Conservatives being "resurgent", I don't know where you get your news from, but I'd change your source(s?) immediately.
Again the facts are as follows. The Scottish Conservatives (who llike Scottish Labour are merely a sub-office of the UK party) have seemed to 'rise' because of the collapse of Labour, from 15 Holyrood seats to 31, but their percentage performance is actually lower in UK General Elections than at any time since records began in 1832, a mere 14.9% of the vote - even the hated Mrs Thatcher did better at her worst, with 24% three decades ago in 1987. In Holyrood's 2016 election they only managed 22% against the SNP's 46.9%.
This right-wing, 'coup-type' election called by May with the pathetic connivance of the Labour Party is yet another chance for Scotland to show that we are a totally different polity and that our democratic right to self-determination must be respected. The overwhelming mandate that there already is for a new independence referendum will merely be reinforced. Personally - and I suspect that the party will
not do this - I would turn the election into a clear 'independence election', for the SNP would win with a substantial majority and even by Mrs Thatcher's test the way would then be clear for the negotiation of our establishment as an independent state. That outcome is, however, now only a matter of time, for the issue in Scottish politics is independence, combined with establishing our place in Europe.
The Tories are attempting to corall all the 'unionist' votes and are welcoming to their ranks, even as candidates in the local elections, people from whom earlier Tory leaders would have kept a very clear distance They will no doubt garner some more 'orange' votes (still a diminishing 'tribe' of rather unsavoury social attitudes) and will be hoping to prize from the rubble of Labour's support some of the footballing unionist persuasion. Good luck with making that combination appeal to more than the crazy and disreputable fringes. For the rest, they remain mired in their xenophobic, Brit-nat 'nasty party' image as the oppressors of the poor, the disadvantaged, the disabled and, increasingly, women. Their toxic attitudes to refugees are actively loathed, their leader's defence of the 'rape clause' has shocked the public and their enthusiasm for vast investments in England accompanied by constantly rubbishing their own country are increasingly despised even, as my own campaigning experience attests, in places and among people who might be expected to be their traditional supporters.
Plus, the SNP government's performance in such key areas as health, education and housing enjoys a huge amount of public confidence and with good statistical reason. The SNP keep getting elected because they provide good, fair and respected government - not perfect, of course, but way the best we've had in decades and decades of past mismanagement, neglect and hostile exploitation. The rise of the wider YES movement has this broad base of fairness, respect and confidence on which it has been able to build - and against this the Tories have nothing to offer but prejudice, greed for the few and isolationist xenophobia. They are going nowhere - except to losing yet again.