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Unread 04-23-2017, 08:16 AM
Nigel Mace Nigel Mace is offline
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Location: The Borders, Andalucia and Italy
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And a very happy St George's Day to you too, David.

On the polls, that won't be quite how it will work, David, even if today's polls are accurate and repeated on the 8th of June. The Greens' share of the opinion poll in Scotland, for which the companies have both failed to release the data-sets, somewhere between 5 and 9%, will mostly go to the SNP (where there are no Green candidates standing - and that is likely to be quite a few of the Tories alleged 'target' seats, e.g. Mundell's); none of it will go to the Tories. Even without the 'Green' element the SNP lead over the Tories is c.15%. (Labour in total free-fall at c.15%. is by far the biggest source of the increased Tory percentages.)

So.... a result with the SNP taking 44-46 of the 59 seats in Scotland (the worst end of today's poll results) would be over 75% of the available seats for the pro-independence party. Remind me when any UK party achieved a majority remotely so overwhelming? (The answer is only once - the so-called 'National' government of 1931; nothing else comes close.)
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