[David Anthony]

The usual trend is for the don't knows to mostly vote for the status quo, so I expect the result won't be as close as predicted: maybe high 50s for the No vote.
Whatever the outcome, the genie is out of the bottle now. Scotland is a divided country, and the UK will never be the same again.

[E. Shaun Russell]

I liken the chances to about the same as Quebec gaining independence from Canada. As I recall, back in 1995 (the last referendum on the matter) the results came back 52-48 against separation. I suspect the same will be true here for the exact reasons David mentions. The status quo is safer, and by and large, more people are oriented toward the safe and the comfortable over evoking change.

Having said all of that, Scotland has some very good reasons for wanting to separate, just as Quebec did. I wouldn't blame them for a "Yes" vote.

[Mary McLean]

I'm firmly in the No camp, as you might have guessed from my last poem, and think the vote will probably go that way. But I'm dreading the aftermath whichever way it goes.

[Charlotte Innes]

Sending some gentleness your way, Annie! I honestly don't think people here are taking it lightly. And personally, I spent a portion of the summer (my time in England) listening to arguments in both directions. It is actually interesting that it's so close. Quite surprising to me, actually. I wonder how it will play out emotionally? I keep thinking of countries that broke away in Europe... But I think Scotland is different, a solid old soul. I speak as someone who spent a lot of time there as a child, and loved the place.

Charlotte

[Quincy Lehr]

Yeah, how did that wind up on a "progressive" web site? The left has traditionally been in favor of national self-determination. That certain English leftists (the Labour Party hasn't counted in ages) don't grasp that is an indictment.

Originally Posted by Mary McLean

I'm firmly in the No camp, as you might have guessed from my last poem, and think the vote will probably go that way. But I'm dreading the aftermath whichever way it goes.

[Quincy Lehr]

As is probably obvious, I'm in favor of a "yes" vote.

[Terese Coe]

Annie, this is *supposed* to be a count of predictions, not personal preferences. In some cases those will overlap and/or the difference will be undetectable in some members' answers, and I'll count them anyway. But I am well aware that whatever the outcome, it will cause tears and grief for much of Scotland and the UK. This is a *very* local count at the Sphere and I hope and trust members here will be very careful not to make a mockery of the real outcome or the millions of people and the massive weight of the issues involved. Still, the occasional irony has to be expected. Be gentle, people...

I count 4 more No votes and one Yes. That makes, so far,
6 No and 3 Yes. (This is counting Shaun as No.) Annie didn't cast a vote (yet, at least). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Norman Ball]

I'm with David. The large undecided vote are status quoers. I hear from some relatives there's been mild intimidation which has further suppressed Unionist sentiments. 56.3% against independence.

[Bill Carpenter]

That is probably why the voting age was lowered to 16 for the occasion. Instead of being raised to 50.

[dean peterson]

My guess is No as well but I wouldn't be surprised if the vote was pretty close, either way.

I see the dreaded word "independence" as kind of the key in this matter, the fly in the ointment as it were. It reminds me here of how that word "freedom" is often used in the USA.