[Aaron Poochigian]

UK friends, I am sure that I do not fully understand this new story: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...xit-scots-vote

Is it likely that Scotland will be an independent nation in the near future?

[Michael Juster]

Yes. It almost happened in a pre-Brexit referendum, and Brexit seems to be the proverbial straw breaking the Scots' back.

[Adam Elgar]

It's in the balance. Still looks as if a majority would vote to remain, but the worse the Brexit shambles gets, the more the leave vote will grow. Even the UK govt. has accepted that there'll be a second referendum. The only disagreement is about when it will be held.

[Simon Hunt]

Question for Adam:

Would you say, then, that it would be in the interest of those who hope Scotland stays in the Union to have the vote sooner rather than later? Likewise, might those who want independence not prefer a bit of a delay that would allow more voters to shift their way--and more young voters (who I think trended independence last time...) to become of age and more older voters (who I think trended the other way...) to, er, cease voting?

Surprised not to hear from Nigel M. and John W. on this thread...

[Mark McDonnell]

I think they prefer arguing about Scotland on totally unrelated threads, Simon. Something that starts out as a discussion about Imagism and early modernist poetics maybe. It throws them when the question is actually about Scottish independence.

[Nigel Mace]

Sorry to have appeared reticent (for once), Simon - just out and about in favourite bookshops in York today and at a dialogue group on a very different set of national problems this evening. A bit late to respond properly tonight but I promise I'll catch up on all points tomorrow.

And - no, Mark - I don't (if you like to check) want to raise this on other threads; I just sometimes feel obliged to respond to claims made elsewhere! I'll be very happy to keep the topic here - or hereabouts, though it could stray into verse, as for me it often does (English and Scots), though I don't usually share that here.

For this evening, I'll restrict myself to this. I was at the conference in Aberdeen this weekend and was present for Nicola's speech. (The whole speech can be found here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhsEDCvWKw4 ) I spent a lot of time with a number of our MPs and MSPs and leading activists and I tell you that my judgement is that Theresa May (the UK PM) has, by refusing any move whatsoever in the direction of compromise with the Scottish Government on her 'hard Brexit' plans, guaranteed that when the Scottish Parliament has approved the legislation for a fresh Independence Referendum (which will happen this week - possibly just as, or just before, May's Article 50 letter goes to the EU) - that referendum will result in a win for YES. Nobody in these circles seriously doubts that outcome now - and it will be 'Brexit' and extreme right-wing Tory Unionist intransigence that will have achieved it.

When - precisely, or even semi-precisely - that will be is a more complex and tortuous tale. As I said, more later tomorrow.

[John Whitworth]

Not a snowball's chance in hell. The Scots have no money and no resources. The oil is worth zilch because of American fracking. They are bankrupt, or would be if the English didn't give them money.

Though it is true the English now consider Brexit far more important than Scots Independence. The Scots main trading partner is England. Next on the list is the good old US of A. The EU is way down the list. And, of course, they won't be able to join the EU unless they sign up for the currency, and they won't be able to do that because other EU members will block it, Spain for starters because Scots independence will give encouragement to Catalans.

Some Scots (Nigel?) would prefer to be independent even if it meant being poor. But most Scots are not keen on that option. Actually Nigel is a bit of a Michael Farfrae, or indeed a Sean Connery, loving Scotland from somewhere else.

Ah, Nigel was there and the SNP have no doubt they will win. Ask the oilmen. Ask the fishermen. Ask the business people of Edinburgh. They will move their offices to the North of England, or they would if Independence ever happened. But it won't. Trust mde. I was right about Brexit and I am right about this. Isn't it fun being right. Again!

Salmond and Sturgeon are living in la-la land or else they don't care what porkies they tell. What drives them and the SNP is resentment of the English. They (pop 5 mill) wish to be on an equal footing with England (pop 60 mill).

Adam, what shambles? I don't see any shambles. End of March is the time, as the divine Theresa always said. Where do you get this stuff about a second referendum? From the Remoaners? Thought as much.

I still don't understand why anyone would want to be on a sinking ship which even the rats are leaving. Or to change the metaphor, when a building is on fire the best place to be is outside.

[Adam Elgar]

Simon, I can't say which timing makes the 2nd vote more likely to succeed or fail, and I don't regard it any of my business, much though I'd regret Scotland's departure from the Union.
As for whether the Scots' "independence" would work out (personally I don't believe there is such a thing as an independent country), it's all down to the choice of currency. If it's the pound, then the Bank of England will be in charge, if the euro the ECB, if a new currency the markets.
Doesn't look good.

[David Anthony]

I don't think it will be as bad as 1861. I believe the UK Government has no plans to attack the Scots, even if they do secede.

[John Whitworth]

But I reiterate, it has to be the euro. All new countries wishing to jin the EU have to use the euro. It's not up to us.