I hope tonight you all will light a candle for the Coast.

Will do, Jen. Be safe.

Starting praying now.

Alan thinks you'll be fine, and he and Gustav are old friends.

Jennifer, my household will be praying for you tonight.

I will light a candle for you Jennifer, and for Sam and your families and everyone else along the coast. Evacuation looks like a wise choice, unfortunately:

"Southern Louisiana parishes, including St. Charles west of New Orleans, said they plan to order mandatory evacuations tomorrow."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

Also see:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/cap...news-col-blogs

As of this moment, the storm is headed more toward Texas which, unfortunately, may not help Jennifer that much, but would prevent our having to evacuate. I hope we have more knowledge by tomorrow because if we're going to leave, we have to leave Sunday, and the preparation is quite difficult. I don't want to go through all the prep and then not leave, but I certainly don't want to leave, either.

Darlin' Jenny, the best hurricane coverage is always at Alan's www.seablogger.com. He prefers tropical storms to poetical ones these days, and here's his latest take. I don't think we need pray for you and yours just yet:

"In the visible satellite imagery, a small, clear eye has suddenly opened at the center of newly-designated hurricane Gustav. The storm is moving steadily toward the western tip of Cuba. Ahead of it looms the upper trough and shearing wind. Although the trough is visibly yielding, the hurricane is moving faster than the trough is backing off. Already the outer cirrus field of Gustav is distorting northward with the tug of southwesterly flow. That cloud field and initial rainbands are now crossing the Florida Straits. I can see the outer cirrus of Gustav from my Dania window at this time. Squalls are racing toward Biscayne Bay. Weather will become quite disturbed from here through the Keys tonight. But what will Gustav do?

So far I see no sign that the upper winds are changing Gustav’s course. Most models take it straight toward the Louisiana coast. A landfall SW of New Orleans would move the right front quadrant of the storm into the vulnerable area — the most dangerous scenario. But I do think FEMA is a day early talking about “15-30 foot storm surge.” This reeks of over-reaction to the agency’s pre-Katrina “leave it to the locals” attitude. Yes, Gustav has an eye, and it will strengthen fast now. The Cuba crossing will be brief, and will only disrupt the storm slightly. But those adverse winds over the Gulf, though they should weaken and retreat, may still prevent Gustav from arriving near Louisiana at category three strength. It is time to activate emergency plans, but not to run amok."

I'm thinking about y'all, Jennifer, Diane, and I think Gail White's there, too? Please keep us posted on what happens with you.

Candle lit.

Unfortunately, the storm is headed right for the loop current. However, some very cool water has been spotted the north and west of the lc, and that could help.

Thanks, Mary.

Thinking of you all and lighting a candle tonight.

Lit.

Nemo

Diane and Gail, take good care. Let us hear from you if at all possible.

Store fresh water. And if they tell you to get out, get out.

Bob

Jen,

I'm lighting a candle now for you and all who are in the path of the storm.

Peace -
Anne

Diane,

I empathize. Have been in the path a quite a few and evacuated a good number of times. It is a hassle and throws a big wrench into your plans. But better safe than sorry. Why can't we fly over these storms and shoot them down somehow?

Anne

Jennifer, Alan's latest take:

Hurricane Gustav continued to strengthen steadily overnight. The 5 AM advisory gave an estimated central pressure of 965 mb. Winds have increased proportionately. This is at the threshold of becoming a major hurricane. It is worth nothing that the storm core, though larger than it was early in this storm’s history, remains no more than medium sized, and the eye is quite small. A tightly wound cyclone is more susceptible to disruption during a land crossing. Gustav is tracking NW and will cross western Cuba on schedule.

Significant detail: the sensor drop in the Gulf of Mexico found the Loop Current somewhat south of normal position. Gustav will hit cooler ocean further from the coast than Katrina did. Weather has been unsettled for weeks in the northern Gulf, and much energy has already been lifted from those waters, most recently by Fay. Also the models have noticed the shearing winds, which will not relent entirely with the approach of the hurricane. Finally, the steering current is likely to weaken and may shift to the left as Gustav nears landfall. This would prolong the exposure of the storm core to adverse conditions, and cause it to approach the coast at a more oblique angle.

Bottom line: emergency plans are proceeding along the Gulf Coast, as they should; but I do not think the odds of a major disaster are high. Gustav will be weakening in the hours before landfall, and FEMA’s huge surge is unlikely to materialize.

Prayers continue in North Dakota!

Lois Lane here...once in life is enough to wake to a splintered ceiling, martial law, MRE's, water lines, your home-town football team's rival town wiped off the map, and soldiers bearing assault weapons, stationed at your supermarket entrances! But the generator's up and running.

Sigh.

I will never forget watching the satellite images of Katrina as it approached the coast. My final thought was, run! But it was too late for the many unable or unwilling at that point. Also stuck in my head is the image of the Fox news team reporting from the French Quarter the next morning that New Orleans had, "dodged the bullet" as the water poured through the levees. No one seemed to know, yet.

If I had lots of food and water, a generator, a solid house and was on HIGHER GROUND, I'd probably ride it out. Otherwise I'd be taking a holiday inland. God Bless.

Yes, friends, here in Breaux Bridge we are only about 10 miles from the Gulf (thanks to coastal erosion) and we are in the same panic as the folks in nearby New Orleans. All your prayers and good mental vibrations are much appreciated!

Goodness. In this current "Crisis" mode, I neglected to express my gratitude. Profound thanks, everyone.

Jennifer

May God bless you and keep you safe.

Right now my biggest problem is that the local CBS affiliate has pre-empted the U.S. Open in order to provide non-stop inane bulletins about the storm. They will do the same thing tomorrow, I'm sure (and I very may still be here).

And yes, thanks to everyone for your concern.

[This message has been edited by Diane Dees (edited August 30, 2008).]

Starting to look really bad, Jennifer. Candles being snuffed out all over. Most models now steer it straight at, or just west of New Orleans, at Category Three. Prayers continue.

I just saw a report suggesting a possible category 4. Hope you folks are getting the hell out of there. Love from 8500 feet.

Dave

Dave, while we are hunkering down, do you have one to spur us on?


Roy

It will almost certainly reach Cat 4 over open water, but its approach will be oblique to the coast rather than perpendicular, as it was with Audrey, which nearly killed Jennifer's mother and deprived us of guess who. Gail and Diane, praying for you too.

I am two hours inland, but quite possibly in the direct path, as it is now projected--MSNBC shows it passing through here with category 1 force winds, once it has spent the worst of its wrath. My little town has two emergency Red Cross shelters taking in folks from farther south, and all of the hotels and motels and B&Bs are full. Blessings to all those who will be in its path, particularly those close to the coast.

My cousin and her family evacuated New Orleans last night. I hope they're well into Texas by now. During Katrina they lost their dog in the excitement, and the wonder was they found her months later, I believe in a shelter. They weren't going to let that happen this time.

Be safe, be well, all of you.

It reached Category 5 shortly after it reached Category 4; there is every reason to believe it will be a Category 3 when it hits. The good news was that--after it went through the loop current, it did hit that patch of cold water I mentioned earlier. But it didn't seem to help that much because the hurricane had become so big by that time. We are now expecting very high winds here again--like we had three years ago--so we have no choice but to evacuate. We will be leaving very early in the morning.

Katrina wasn't that bad. We took the back roads, with two cats, to central Louisiana. This time we have to take four cats to Birmingham. But we have a lot more space this time. And at least I can watch the U.S. Open because there will be electricity!

Thank you, Terese, Anne and Tim.

Here is a photo album of our Katrina evacuation: http://dianeandorvin2.shutterfly.com/8

Here's the text of my latest hurricane post at http://www.seablogger.com/

"Hurricane Gustav is roaring across western Cuba. It made landfall with a central pressure of 941 mb, according to hurricane hunters. Sustained winds may have reached 150 mph. Naturally Gustav’s clear eye has filled with cloud as it passed over land, and the eyewall convection has diminished; but the core is intact, and it will be back over water in a few hours. Forward speed has increased to 15 mph, and the steering current has really steadied. As I watch the time-lapse imagery, I can see that Gustav has settled into alignment with the other weather systems in the region, and it will probably not deviate from its present track before Gulf Coast landfall. Because it is moving faster than previous projections suggested, it will bring more of its force to the coast.

"While Gustav wavered in the Caribbean, bouncing from island to island, I was hopeful that it would not reach the US as a major hurricane. Worst case scenarios rarely come to pass. First Gustav would have to escape the bind of other weather systems and mountainous terrain; then it would have to spin through a rapid intensification phase south of Cuba; finally it would have to find a strong steering current that would bear it swiftly across the Gulf before shear or cooling waters could weaken it. All these things have happened. Now it is just a question of where the eye goes ashore.

"If landfall occurs near Atchafalaya Bay or further west, the eyewall will pass safely SW of New Orleans. In that case conditions at the city should not severe enough to breach major levees, unless they are weaker than they were before Katrina. But if landfall occurs near Grand Isle, then New Orleans will be hammered by the northeast quadrant of the storm — the strongest part. Any of several towns along US 95 could find themselves directly in the path of Gustav’s eye as it moves inland. Houma is closest to New Orleans. Westward are Morgan City and New Iberia. All these places have been hit hard by hurricanes in the past."

Prayers have not been answered. This is going to be bad. But Jennifer will probably be on the weaker side of the storm.

Alan

Alan, Houma has been warned of possible 15-foot storm surge, and New Iberia of a possible 6-foot storm surge. Eek. Where I live, there is no chance of flooding, but the winds can get very high.

Here is a New York Times flash that just arrived
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

Here is a link to the National Hurricane Centre which shows
Projected Wind Strength .

Looks like a nasty bastard.

I hope y'all are o.k. in the path of this thing.

Stay safe folks! I hope you're all okay.

~ Bruce

Looks pretty bad, with central pressure at 958 mb. Alan expects 120 mph winds at landfall, with it moving inland just southwest of New Orleans.

I'm in Birmingham with my husband, four cats, the U.S. Open, and enough software issues to keep me very occupied. The ride here was a big surprise. For 3 1/2 hours, the traffic was normal--only there were fewer people in the road. Not long before we approached our first Interstate highway turnoff, traffic slowed to almost a halt. We were caught in that for what seemed like a really long time. But once we got on the Interstate, everything was fine again. It normally takes us 5 hours to get to Birmingham; this trip took 7 1/2.

The sister cats had been through this evacuation scene before, and the slept through the trip. One of the younger ones talked for a long time, then he went to sleep. The other one, our resident drama queen, yelled and clawed his pet taxi and carried on every which way until I had the good sense to put some catnip in his pet taxi and put on some Maria Callas and Joni Mitchell (forgot to bring Mozart--a tried and true cat calmer). After that, the noise tapered off, and he went into a deep sleep.

They have done a bit of exploring of our suite, but not much.

Heart felt prayers for Jennifer and all Eratosphereans who fear the worst.

Janet