Hi Dan. The situation is tense. Apparently Amin Gemayel, the father of the slain Pierre, has now lost his brother, son, niece, nephew, and cousin to violence. It is a terrible tragedy. I read the
Daily Star every day. I think Lahoud, Hezbollah, Aoun, Syria, and Iran are trying to bring down the gov't. Aoun just wants to be president. Lahoud was maybe involved in killing Hariri, Syria almost definitely, Iran needs Syria (you need one friend in town), and Hezbollah has its shots called from Tehran. 5 Shiite ministers and one Lahoud ally (Christian) resigned a few weeks ago, hoping to bring the government down. (I think if nine total resign, then they have to form a new government.) With Gemayel (who was staunchly anti-Syrian) killed, they only need two more gone. Yes, I think Syria and co. want to axe the Hariri assassignation tribunal, which must be approved by cabinet. The cabinet did approve the tribunal, but Lahoud (the president) and the opposition are saying the current government is illegitimate because it included no Shiites (of course the Shiites resigned and have been invited back, but they are ignoring that fact). Brammertz, the leader of the UN investigation is pretty quiet, but the word is that he probably has some good stuff on Syrian leadership.
[Editing back in: just to be more clear (maybe), there is a tangled web of conspirators here. I don't think Aoun, or even Hezbollah, was involved in Gemayel's death. It may have just been Syria and a shadowy terrorist group. Yet they are all involved, one way or another, in trying to bring down the Siniora government, which I think done a fine job given the lousy situation(s) Lebanon has been in.]
[This message has been edited by Daniel Haar (edited December 07, 2006).]