Thread: Hurricanes
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Unread 08-29-2008, 06:02 PM
Tim Murphy Tim Murphy is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fargo ND, USA
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Darlin' Jenny, the best hurricane coverage is always at Alan's www.seablogger.com. He prefers tropical storms to poetical ones these days, and here's his latest take. I don't think we need pray for you and yours just yet:

"In the visible satellite imagery, a small, clear eye has suddenly opened at the center of newly-designated hurricane Gustav. The storm is moving steadily toward the western tip of Cuba. Ahead of it looms the upper trough and shearing wind. Although the trough is visibly yielding, the hurricane is moving faster than the trough is backing off. Already the outer cirrus field of Gustav is distorting northward with the tug of southwesterly flow. That cloud field and initial rainbands are now crossing the Florida Straits. I can see the outer cirrus of Gustav from my Dania window at this time. Squalls are racing toward Biscayne Bay. Weather will become quite disturbed from here through the Keys tonight. But what will Gustav do?

So far I see no sign that the upper winds are changing Gustav’s course. Most models take it straight toward the Louisiana coast. A landfall SW of New Orleans would move the right front quadrant of the storm into the vulnerable area — the most dangerous scenario. But I do think FEMA is a day early talking about “15-30 foot storm surge.” This reeks of over-reaction to the agency’s pre-Katrina “leave it to the locals” attitude. Yes, Gustav has an eye, and it will strengthen fast now. The Cuba crossing will be brief, and will only disrupt the storm slightly. But those adverse winds over the Gulf, though they should weaken and retreat, may still prevent Gustav from arriving near Louisiana at category three strength. It is time to activate emergency plans, but not to run amok."

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