Jennifer, Alan's latest take:
Hurricane Gustav continued to strengthen steadily overnight. The 5 AM advisory gave an estimated central pressure of 965 mb. Winds have increased proportionately. This is at the threshold of becoming a major hurricane. It is worth nothing that the storm core, though larger than it was early in this storm’s history, remains no more than medium sized, and the eye is quite small. A tightly wound cyclone is more susceptible to disruption during a land crossing. Gustav is tracking NW and will cross western Cuba on schedule.
Significant detail: the sensor drop in the Gulf of Mexico found the Loop Current somewhat south of normal position. Gustav will hit cooler ocean further from the coast than Katrina did. Weather has been unsettled for weeks in the northern Gulf, and much energy has already been lifted from those waters, most recently by Fay. Also the models have noticed the shearing winds, which will not relent entirely with the approach of the hurricane. Finally, the steering current is likely to weaken and may shift to the left as Gustav nears landfall. This would prolong the exposure of the storm core to adverse conditions, and cause it to approach the coast at a more oblique angle.
Bottom line: emergency plans are proceeding along the Gulf Coast, as they should; but I do not think the odds of a major disaster are high. Gustav will be weakening in the hours before landfall, and FEMA’s huge surge is unlikely to materialize.
Prayers continue in North Dakota!
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