Here's the text of my latest hurricane post at
http://www.seablogger.com/
"Hurricane Gustav is roaring across western Cuba. It made landfall with a central pressure of 941 mb, according to hurricane hunters. Sustained winds may have reached 150 mph. Naturally Gustav’s clear eye has filled with cloud as it passed over land, and the eyewall convection has diminished; but the core is intact, and it will be back over water in a few hours. Forward speed has increased to 15 mph, and the steering current has really steadied. As I watch the time-lapse imagery, I can see that Gustav has settled into alignment with the other weather systems in the region, and it will probably not deviate from its present track before Gulf Coast landfall. Because it is moving faster than previous projections suggested, it will bring more of its force to the coast.
"While Gustav wavered in the Caribbean, bouncing from island to island, I was hopeful that it would not reach the US as a major hurricane. Worst case scenarios rarely come to pass. First Gustav would have to escape the bind of other weather systems and mountainous terrain; then it would have to spin through a rapid intensification phase south of Cuba; finally it would have to find a strong steering current that would bear it swiftly across the Gulf before shear or cooling waters could weaken it. All these things have happened. Now it is just a question of where the eye goes ashore.
"If landfall occurs near Atchafalaya Bay or further west, the eyewall will pass safely SW of New Orleans. In that case conditions at the city should not severe enough to breach major levees, unless they are weaker than they were before Katrina. But if landfall occurs near Grand Isle, then New Orleans will be hammered by the northeast quadrant of the storm — the strongest part. Any of several towns along US 95 could find themselves directly in the path of Gustav’s eye as it moves inland. Houma is closest to New Orleans. Westward are Morgan City and New Iberia. All these places have been hit hard by hurricanes in the past."
Prayers have not been answered. This is going to be bad. But Jennifer will probably be on the weaker side of the storm.
Alan