Nadal vs. Federer
Rafa up two sets to one.
For the first set and a half, it was really clear why Nadal gives Fed so much trouble: because the normal rally shots & angles play so much more into his strengths than Fed's. The Federer backhand cross-court to the Nadal forehand is obviously in Nadal's favor, while whenever Federer runs around a backhand to hit the forehand up the line, Nadal is there with that blistering cross-court backhand into the open court. Add in the fact that he practically doesn't miss, and there's nowhere safe to put an approach shot, and you have a flummoxed Roger Federer. Then finally there's Fed's refusal to run around serves almost invariably directed at his backhand, and the weak returns he just punts into the court off weak serves, letting Rafa into points that he could take charge of.
Two things happened: Federer started changing his habitual angles, using the slice backhand up the line (instead of cross-court), & when he runs around the forehand, hitting it flat and inside-out with a wicked angle to Nadal's forehand rather than up the line. The second thing, & probably more important, is that Rafa got tired and started making errors that he just doesn't make. If Federer wins this match, he owes a lot of the credit to Fernando Verdasco. The key moment was that weak service Nadal played early in the second set when he had the break and just kind of gave it back for no real reason.
I wrote all this expecting Fed to win the third set; I'm shocked that he lost it. It looked so clear that he was going to win the match; unbelievable heart from Rafa, and a bit of choking from Fed. He's already The Man, but if he wins this thing, he's really The Man.
Chris
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