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  #1  
Unread 09-04-2019, 08:21 AM
Max Goodman Max Goodman is offline
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Default Brexit again

Dear British friends,

Again I turn to you in confusion about British politics. (Your politics are fascinating just now, and I find it hopeful that there is a country where conservatives are willing to put what they perceive as the nation's best interests above loyalty to party!) Can any of you help me understand a couple of points?

What's up with Johnson and the backstop (keeping Northern Ireland in a (temporary) customs union with Europe)? He seems not to have proposed any alternative to it, but his interest in negotiating one is reported seriously, as though such negotiation can take place without any alternate proposal.

Why did Johnson give Parliament time to rebel? Why did he prorogue Parliament beginning mid-September and not immediately (or immediately on their reconvening after their break)? (I don't mean to ask you psychoanalyze him; I'm hoping there is a practical reason, maybe some law, that explains the timing.)

Thanks.
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  #2  
Unread 09-04-2019, 01:31 PM
David Anthony David Anthony is offline
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Good questions, Mark.

Regarding the first, the problem with the backstop is that it isn't temporary. There's no time limit and no provision for the UK to exit unilaterally. The effect would be to keep us permanently within the Customs Union and unable to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. States don't agree to such things unless defeated in war.

The second is a puzzler. The Government has no need to fear the legislation going through the Commons. They can filibuster in the House of Lords. If that fails, they can ask the Queen to refuse royal assent (which constitutionally she must do). If they don't want to embarrass the Queen, the UK can vote against an extension or ask an ally to do so; and since the decision must be unanimous the request will fail.

So I'm guessing that the prorogation delay was to enable the Government to call an election.
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Unread 09-04-2019, 01:59 PM
Roger Slater Roger Slater is offline
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If what you're saying is true, David, then why would Johnson have bothered kicking people out of his party? Sounds like he can get his way no matter what. Are you suggesting that he really doesn't want to push Brexit through until his decision is validated by winning another election? He's willing to take the risk of losing?
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  #4  
Unread 09-04-2019, 02:19 PM
David Anthony David Anthony is offline
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As far as I can see that's the only explanation, though I'm surprised he wants to have the election before 31 October.

Post Brexit it's going to take years to conclude the negotiations, so it's necessary to purge the party of dissidents.
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  #5  
Unread 09-04-2019, 03:09 PM
James Brancheau James Brancheau is offline
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Nah, I'll try to stay out of this one. (I won't return, but just to be transparent, a summary of what I deleted: Boris isn't long for the job, Brexit, if it ever really were, isn't supported by the public anymore, never mind a no deal and so of course these "rebels" are actually representing their constituencies' desires. And, oh yeah, I didn't think Trump could win so I could be wrong about Boris not being around long. Morons seem to be the in thing, politically speaking.)

Last edited by James Brancheau; 09-04-2019 at 03:48 PM. Reason: .
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  #6  
Unread 09-04-2019, 03:48 PM
Matt Q Matt Q is offline
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Roger,

It's not clear that Johnson can get his way at present, he's well short of a majority since the 'purge'. He'd promised that we'd be out by October 31st, deal or no deal. (And he'd promised he could get us a better deal, by threatening a no-deal to force the EU to give us a deal -- and oddly, also telling the EU that this was his strategy).

And it's no deal that was looking the most likely until yesterday, and some might even say, that's what he wants, or had settled for: Leave without a deal, blame the EU for the lack of deal (rather than Boris failing to achieve what he'd said he could), follow this by a quick election before the damage done by a no-deal-Brexit becomes too apparent, and sweeten the pot with some already-emerging promises of masses of extra spending, in the hopes that people forget the last 10 years of austerity.

However, Parliament is in the process of legislating against a no-deal Brexit, which would require the UK to ask for an extension to the leave date if a deal can't be reached. So now Johnson wants to call an election ASAP, before the Oct 31 deadline, presumably because he thinks that would place him in a stronger position to carry out his pledge to ensure we leave by the deadline. And, of course, because he I reckon he knows he's not really going to get a deal sorted out. Since him sorting the deal the said he could sort would get us out on time.

If there was an election on Oct 15th, which is what Johnson now wants, and he got a majority, and having purged his opponents within the Tory party and replaced them with allies, he might be able overturn the anti-no-deal legislation and allow us leave without a deal on the 31st. But to do this, he needs parliament to agree to having an election (and by a two-thirds majority I think), which requires the opposition parties to agree to let him do this.

However, the opposition have said they won't agree to the election until the bill that prevents the UK leaving without a deal becomes law. By which point, I think, it'd be too late to call an election before the deadline for leaving the EU, especially as pro-Johnson allies in the House of Lords are trying to slow it down as much as possible. So, Johnson is not going to get what he wants here either.

So, assuming Johnson doesn't magically conjure up a new deal that the EU will accept (which I don't believe he expects to be able to do), then the election, when it comes, would likely happen after the October 30th deadline and we'll still be in the EU then. At this point Johnson's claims that he could negotiate a stronger deal and that he'd get us out by October 30th will not have come to pass. But, of course, then he can blame Corbyn's 'surrender plan' and the say that had he not been hamstrung by this, he'd have got us a deal, because the EU would have been scared into it by the prospect of a no-deal, alongside blaming the EU for not negotiating the way he wanted them to.

The obvious benefit of kicking MPs out of the Conservative party who don't agree with him, is that come an election he can replace them candidates who do. So, basically, the old rebels, the ones who voted against the government's proposed deal, upon taking power, kick out the new rebels and consolidate their power. Of course, this could backfire in an election. For example if the ousted MPs stand for reelection as independent Conservatives against the new Tory candidates and split the Tory vote.

That's my take. Obviously I'm not an expert and things are moving very quickly.
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  #7  
Unread 09-04-2019, 05:07 PM
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Jayne Osborn Jayne Osborn is offline
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I'm staying out of this one too, but my husband has just called the whole Brexit business a "clusterfuck".

I said to him, "A what??" I've never heard that word before, but I've learned that it's a US military term meaning a "disastrously mishandled situation or undertaking".

How very apt!

Jayne
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Unread 09-04-2019, 05:14 PM
John Isbell John Isbell is offline
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Yes, the term seems apt. I do think Putin must be delighted at every passing minute, as Western democracy pays the price.

Cheers,
John
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  #9  
Unread 09-04-2019, 06:02 PM
Max Goodman Max Goodman is offline
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Thanks for all the thoughts.

Does no backstop mean a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland or is there a third option?
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  #10  
Unread 09-04-2019, 06:30 PM
Roger Slater Roger Slater is offline
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Another question I have is why call another general election, in which people's votes could be affected by issues other than Brexit, and not instead call for another Brexit referendum? Aren't there some who might vote against Brexit but still generally prefer Tory policies in other areas?

I've also read that there may be ways to change the rules in order to call another general election without a two-thirds majority. Have I heard right? Apparently they can change the two-thirds rule with a majority vote.
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