[John Whitworth]

Don't cry, Michael. Be happy. Your moral superiority is in excellent shape.

[Charlie Southerland]

Janice, I clearly paid attention to what you said in post#71. I took it to heart and really was not being as flip as you posed in post#73.

You said: Science is about predictability of known fact that something else will happen and can measure the rightness or wrongness of that hypothesis, then it can be assumed as fact until disproved. I went with that. To my mind, the simplest explanation is the best one. Hence, my retort.

I don't own a Farmer's Almanac.(published continuously since 1792) A lot of farmers do though. They follow it religiously. They swear by it. It is their "Farmer's Bible." There isn't a whole lot of science to it, but there is a lot of experience to it gathered over hundreds of years. Would it be fair to say that it is a scientific book? Of course not. Is it accurate? Nope. But if you plant your potatoes by it I guarantee that 999 times out of a thousand, you'll have a successful tater patch. That's pretty damn scientific. No wait, I meant practical. There are many such examples in that little book.


When the meteorologist says it's gonna' be really cold. I dress for it.
When he says, "It's gonna' be really hot, I undress for it and get the sunscreen out and wear a hat.
When he says it's gonna' rain, I pack an umbrella.
You get the picture. He has a college degree, works with scientists, follows models, checks and double checks his information, yet, many times he is either outright wrong, or premature in his scientific predictions. In other words, he's fallible.

But you know what? I listen to him and act accordingly because he spares me hardship if I believe he's going to be right. That's practical.

So we come to hurricane forecasts based on American models and European models, which do yearly forecasts based on current weather patterns and historical patterns. For the past nine years— 3,420 days and counting, they have predicted 2 to 3 or more major hurricanes to hit the U.S. of A. In 3,420 days, not a single Major hurricane has come close to hitting us. You would think that a pattern has developed and that they would re-jigger their forecasts, but nope, it doesn't work that way. The scientists keep forecasting 2, to 3, to 5 major Atlantic hurricanes a year, scare the crap out of people, and when the scientists are wrong, no one says crap about it. And then, and then, when one major hurricane hits, the scientists beat their chests and say; '"See, we told you so." Those of us who live in the Midwest, South and Plains pay extreme attention to the weatherman when tornado weather is forecast. Or when major blizzards or ice storms are forecast. Sometimes they happen, sometimes they don't. The scientists have redundant systems and models to back them up, but they don't know for sure. Even if they did know for sure, they can't stop the weather from happening.

What irks me about the climatologists is they continually foster a state of fear for every season. Don't even get me started on earthquake forecasts and models.

I refuse to live in a continual state of fear and handwringing because of alarmists with less experience than a weatherman(or weathergirl) telling me that life is going to end if I/we don't give up our money to the government and East Anglia fabricators.

Some of you are being petty because we disagree, because I and 2.5 billion Christians basically agree with scripture that's been around awhile, way longer than your East Anglia Holy writ which has been debunked as a fabrication. I haven't called any of you names or refused to critique your work. I wouldn't stoop so low. You toss John aside when he departs from poetry into these discussions too. He is a well read, well published, well respected writer. Shame on you. You act like a bunch of high school kids. There is no excuse for it. None.

[Roger Slater]

Originally Posted by Charlie Southerland

So we come to hurricane forecasts based on American models and European models, which do yearly forecasts based on current weather patterns and historical patterns. For the past nine years— 3,420 days and counting, they have predicted 2 to 3 or more major hurricanes to hit the U.S. of A. In 3,420 days, not a single Major hurricane has come close to hitting us.

Huh? Have you not heard of Hurricane Sandy? That was 2012, and was the second-costliest hurricane in US history, and it was the second major hurricane of that year alone. There are still people living in tents three years later. Your claim is simply and demonstrably ridiculous, so I won't bother pointing out the many ways your conclusions would still be illogical even if your claims were correct.

[Charlie Southerland]

Roger, I beg to differ with you about Sandy. According to multiple sources including the Governor's office, meteorologists and insurance carriers, Sandy was not classified as a hurricane, but a post-tropical storm. Superstorm, if you will. My facts are correct, dude. Check it out. So please do regale me with my illogical conclusions, if you dare.

[Roger Slater]

Wikepedia:

Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as the second-costliest hurricane in United States history. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane and second major hurricane of the year, Sandy was a Category 3 storm at its peak intensity when it made landfall in Cuba.[1] While it was a Category 2 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)).[3][4] Estimates as of March 2014 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD), a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina.[5] At least 233 people were killed along the path of the storm in eight countries.[2][6]

I think it's splitting hairs to argue about how it was technically classified when it hit the US coast, given that it was a hurricane during much of its life and it did more damage and caused more havoc and loss of life than even major hurricanes tend to do in the US. And your original statement was that no hurricane had "come close" to hitting the US. You don't consider this to be at least coming close?

[Charlie Southerland]

Roger, it doesn't matter what I think Sandy was. Go argue with the Gov of Jersey. The reason those folks are still in tents out there is that Sandy wasn't classified as a hurricane. I stand by what the reliable article say, not Wikipedia, come on, man, Wikipedia. Surely you can source better than that. Wikipedia? East Anglia. Anyone?


And another thing, you can't have it both ways when it doesn't suit you. You can't claim that science and Government are wrong when you disagree with their conclusions and turn around and cite them as authority when you do agree with them regarding the same related subject. That's a great recipe for losing a debate.

[Janice D. Soderling]

You can't claim that science and Government are wrong when you disagree with their conclusions and turn around and cite them as authority when you do agree with them regarding the same related subject.

Of course you can. Both "science" and "Government" are abstract terms and are whatever you define them as.

No one has claimed that either are infallible. Therefore something that is "government" can be both right and wrong. Also science. You just have to say exactly what scientific source or what government source you are referring to.

My objection to your reasoning, Charlie, if I may respectfully say so, is that you do not really state your premises in such a way that that they can be verified or disproved.

It reminds me of a debate I watched the other night between https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6kgvhG3AkI

Ham never said anything that could be proved. When cornered he just fell back on his standard proof, the Bible. And of course for him that trumps everything else. As I think it does for you. So this thread is a pseuo-debate and leads nowhere.

Everybody go on an Easter egg hunt instead. Or eat some chocolate. Or write a poem. Or read the dictionary.

Best I think would be to read the dictionary while eating chocolate. That's what I'd do, but I don't have any chocolate in the house.

[Janice D. Soderling]

Julie, I thought Pat Robertson was a Southern Baptist?

[Michael Cantor]

My moral superiority sucks, John. What I am relatively proud of is my ability to think things through a bit before trumpeting whatever crosses my mind. It's my semi-rigorous engineering training at work, and has nothing to do with moral superiority.

[W.F. Lantry]

Originally Posted by John Whitworth

Your moral superiority is in excellent shape.

It really must be, with all that exercise it gets. And when I think about all the time some curmudgeon spends muttering in the corner of the pub that people shouldn't be talking about whatever the hell they feel like talking about, it makes me want to order another pint, and giggle some more!

Thanks,

Bill